I think it’s fair to say that the offshore wind industry has suffered and enjoyed equal measures of optimism and gloom over recent years, and perhaps more than one grandiose promise and false start.
Before you sigh and look away, I am the very last person who will do the industry down. Whatever detractors may say, progress has been incredible, and hindsight is illuminating: if we had dared to predict the achievements of the past decade back in, say, 2012, we would have been ridiculed as fantasists.
But with Burns Night this weekend, and as the industry gears up for #SROFFSHORE26 next week, I can’t help but think that:
“The best laid schemes o’mice an’ men gang aft agley”.
We can expect notes of triumphalism from UK Government ministers as they, rightly, celebrate the record breaking 8.44GW of offshore wind projects awarded CfDs in the recent Allocation Round 7 (AR7).
Realistic strike prices have delivered a massive pipeline that could / should put the industry back on track to meaningfully contribute to Clean Power 2030 (CP2030). (Let’s set aside the anomaly of the one Scottish project to receive a CfD, SSE’s Berwick Bank Phase 1, receiving a marginally lower strike price than sites further south, despite incurring higher transmission costs. The well-intentioned distinct pot for Scottish projects may need a bit of work ahead of AR8).
But I anticipate a greater degree of caution from industry and, perhaps more so, the supply chain, who have been here before and know that the journey from CfD to Final Investment Decision (FID) and deployment is long and arduous. The pipeline of projects is potential, and a critical enabler of market confidence, but it is not delivery.
We need to once again consider what the measures of success should be. If they are confined to affordable consumer bills and achieving net zero – no small feats – then we might be right to raise a dram and toast to success. But our ambition has to be higher than that, and the Government cannot step back, as has happened in the past, believing that its job is done and that it is now for industry to provide.
The challenges remain many and are well documented, from the grid to vessel availability and port infrastructure. But perhaps the starkest fact is that there simply isn’t the availability today of the turbines and balance of plant to deliver these volumes. The UK does not operate in isolation and supply chain demand from across Europe and the Far East is growing exponentially.
Geo-political factors must be overcome and fresh impetus from new suppliers, aligned with significant growth from incumbents, is critical to delivering on these projects.
If we are to realise the economic benefits in our own communities, then we need Government to continue to prime the pumps, leading joined-up partnership across public and private sectors, backed by policy as well as investment, to create the conditions for growth.
Bold decisions on the auction budget have provided a large carrot, but Government should not now be afraid to wield a stick that demands UK content, with factories built on these shores and innovation pulled through from a supply chain desperate to grasp the opportunity.
I’m looking forward to catching up with many old colleagues next week and enjoying the positive (clean) energy. Before then, I will raise a glass in optimism and quietly toast to what should be a shift in momentum that will not see the brakes slammed on at the next hurdle, but really deliver a just transition, affordable clean energy, and jobs the length and breadth of the country.
Slange var!